measure and quantify expected loss from unlikely scenarios by assessing conditional value-at-risk (cvar)
conditional value-at-risk (cvar) is the extended risk measure of value-at-risk that quantifies the average loss over a specified time period of unlikely scenarios beyond the confidence level. for example, a one-day 99% cvar of $12 million means that the expected loss of the worst 1% scenarios over a one-day period is $12 million. cvar is also known as expected shortfall.
practitioners in both risk management and portfolio management are increasingly using cvar. for example:
- cvar is replacing var for calculating market risk capital in the fundamental review of the trading book (frtb) by basel committee on banking supervision (bcbs).
- cvar is being adopted for portfolio optimization.
depending on the asset classes and types of risk exposure, risk managers employ various mathematical techniques to calculate cvar, including:
- monte carlo simulation
- copula-based portfolio simulation
- pricing and valuation of financial derivatives
- econometrics models (e.g., interest rate models and garch models)
for more information, see statistics and machine learning toolbox™, financial toolbox™, financial instruments toolbox™, and risk management toolbox™.
examples and how to
-
- video
-
- video
-
- user story
-
- user story
-
- example
software reference
-
market risk - documentation
-
- documentation
-
: portfolio value at risk - function
-
: var backtesting - function
see also: risk management, market risk, value-at-risk, backtesting, basel iii, systemic risk, credit scoring model, concentration risk